For UP Economics alumni, seminars like the one held last July 18, 2011 in the UP School of Economics (UPSE) improve our understanding of where the Philippines is and whether the country can go forward or not at all. The topic was “Asia-Pacific Economic Outlook: Policy Changes for Asia and the Philippines.” The main discussant was Mr. Vivec Arora, Assistant Director, Asia-Pacific Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The other discussants were Dante Canlas (UPSE Professor and former NEDA Director General), Ben Diokno (UPSE Professor and former Budget Secretary) and Joey Salceda (Albay Governor and former Economic Adviser of former President Gloria Arroyo).
Mr. Arora’s main argument was that there will be strong growth in the Asia-Pacific Region with notable differences across countries. Global investment and private domestic demand are the growth drivers. The fastest growing will be China and India although he warned of overheating particularly in China. ASEAN countries will surely benefit from growth in these countries depending on how strong the trade linkages are to them. There are, however, some risks. Mr Arora emphasized the following: high commodity prices (notably oil), volatile capital inflows (“hot money” versus foreign direct investment) and the recent Japan earthquake. There is also the concern of making economic growth more inclusive – i.e., translates to reduced poverty.
In the case of the Philippines, Mr. Arora pointed out that “stronger investment environment is key to sustained economic growth.” In reaction, Prof. Canlas and Prof. Diokno basically doubt that such will happen in the Philippines in the short-term. Prof. Gon Jurado expressed concern regarding “inclusive growth”, stressing that rapid growth fuelled by investment is key to poverty reduction in the long-term. But UPSE Dean Arsi Balisacan argued that efficiency and equity need not be conflicting, even in the short-term, giving Vietnam’s experience as an example.
The discussions were quite interesting and the show of political colors and biases could not be restrained. But one of the good things about seminars like this at UPSE is not just that they do not cost much (none at all actually) but mainly because of the quality of the discussion. If only for that, UP Econ alumni should find time to attend seminars such as the IMF one.
- By Leah Panganiban Castro
