(DP 2018-04) Federalism and Inclusion in Developing Economies

Abstract

(Revised, 12 September 2018)

Using two-step system-GMM on a panel data of 105 economies over the period 1987-2016, we present formal statistical evidence that Federalism is a strong predictor of greater income inequality in developing economies. It is also a strong predictor of higher poverty incidence and poverty severity on average for all countries. Federalism does not predict lower poverty incidence and severity in developing countries. Thus for a developing economy such as the Philippines, Federalism appears to be a leap from the frying pan into the fire of even greater income inequality and poverty incidence.

JEL Classification: D3, I3, O1