About Per SE

Commentary and research on current events and public policy by economists from the University of the Philippines
Posts tagged "exchange rate"

Inflationary tendency

A creeping rise in domestic prices has been happening since a year ago, indicative of modest inflationary pressures.

Peso depreciation: causes and implications

Last week, the peso breached 50 pesos per one US dollar. Until August, it was 46 pesos to the dollar on average. This means the peso has depreciated by as much as 8.7 percent since August. One thing is sure, the peso rate will fluctuate some more.

Philippine monetary history viewed from the Greek euro crisis perspective

The current Greek economic crisis within the euro zone can be instructive for us in understanding our own monetary history since American colonial times. This is now what I will attempt to do.

The risks of a rising peso

Recent data show that the United States economic recovery remains tentative. These lead to fresh speculation that the peso will start to appreciate. But a strong peso does not necessarily mean that the Philippine economy is weak, but that the US economy is weak. In fact, a strong peso is not necessarily good for most...

Currency wars?

One view that has become popular among commentators and pundits is that currency wars are now front row in the global landscape. This is hardly compelling.

Green shoots

The Philippine economy grew at 6.6% in Q4 2013 despite the ravages of Yolanda, and the overall growth for the year averaged a rapid 7% for 2013. While this is a reason for celebration, I wanted to look beyond "rapid" having in the past celebrated episodes of rapid growth which promptly collapsed.

Who’s afraid of a weak peso?

In recent days, the peso has dipped to a three-year low at P45 to a dollar. Should government authorities panic? I hope not. Overall, its effect on economic growth, employment, the government’s fiscal position, and the Bangko Sentral’s financial position is positive.

Deviant behavior: a century of Philippine industrialization

[with Jeffrey Williamson] While the Philippines conformed to the world-wide unconditional industrial convergence pattern for seven decades, it began to deviate from the pack in the 1980s, leaving the industrial catching up club in 1982, never to re-enter. What were the causes of this regime switch?

‘Hot money’ exit inevitable

It would be a mistake to assume that the equity markets and currency markets will be sailing smoothly from hereon. I see the present situation as more of a lull before the storm. I expect more volatility in the next few months. When the Fed starts to tighten the tapering process will be sustained for...

Do nothing, don’t intervene

Many stock traders and fund managers, who benefited from the exuberant stock exchange and who bet that the peso would continue to appreciate, are pressuring monetary authorities to do something to reverse the depreciating peso. Doing so would be a monumental mistake.

Investment grade: boon or bane?

The annals of underdevelopment are filled with chapters on failures due to wasted opportunities, with hardly any account of failure due to scarcity of resources.

Currency wars

The growing strength of the euro, accompanied by Japanese authorities’ moves to push down the yen, has rekindled talk of "currency wars." With Europe still in search for new sources of growth, a strong euro could make euro zone exports look more expensive and unattractive. A weaker yen may provide relief for Japanese exporters...