(DP 2004-06) International Transmission of US Monetary Policy Shocks to Asia

Renato E. Reside, Jr.

Abstract


This study estimates the individual responses of major Asian economies to an expansionary US monetary policy shock. The main result is that a US expansion leads to a real appreciation for several small, open Asian economies, with a negative impact on trade balances, eventually leading to a decline in GDP. The observed pattern of responses, where the trade balance plays a central role, is consistent with the Mundell-Fleming model. There is no evidence to support the existence of an interest rate channel in Asia, a central feature of new microfounded open economy macroeconomic models. A US expansion lowers real interest rates in the region, but Asian GDP, consumption and investment also generally fall.

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