(DP 2010-08) The Philippine Economy and Poverty During the Global Economic Crisis

Arsenio Balisacan, Sharon Piza, Dennis Mapa, Carlos Abad Santos, Donna Odra

Abstract


Anecdotal evidence permeates accounts on the impact of the global economic crisis (GEC) on Philippine poverty. This study systematically assesses the evidence and recent data. It adopts a somewhat eclectic approach, applying regression and decomposition techniques to trace the GEC impact on GDP and its major components, constructing panel data from nationally representative household surveys to trace the changes in household welfare during the crisis, and combining national income accounts and household survey data to simulate the differential effects of the crisis across population groups and social divides. Empirical findings suggest that although the Philippine economy did not slide to recession during the GEC, the impact of the crisis on the economy and poverty across population groups was nonetheless severe — and may linger for many years to come.

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