Phase 1 of the program was held over a three-year period, from 2008 to 2011. The first round of AC-UPSE fora featured lectures on exchange rate policy, fiscal behavior, labor exports and remittances, taxation and spending, the global financial crisis, international monetary system, institutions and growth, labor and employment, housing policy, and public support to tertiary education. A compilation of the papers presented during the series of fora was later published as a volume entitled The Ayala Corporation-UP School of Economics Economic Forum: A compilation of papers 2008-2011.
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10 Apr 2008 | The Peso Appreciation and Sustainability of Growth: Need We Worry?
Abstract The peso appreciation is ravaging the prospects of our dollar-earning sectors. Jobs are being lost and investment and expansion plans are being shelved. Some firms are considering relocating to other countries. Our OFW heroes are being treated as doormats. Historically, rapid appreciations have also seeded economic bubbles that eventually morphed into banking and financial crises: the Mexican tequila in 1994, the Asian Crisis in 1997-8, the Argentine Crisis in 2002 and the Japanese Bubble in the late 80’s and eventual banking crisis in the 90’s. It is more ominous if it flows from the Latin American Syndrome which is anchored on a romance with the strong peso. We look at what may be doable to stem future appreciation and its offspring of sustainable penury in a remittance driven economy. |
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11 Jul 2008 | Philippines: Fiscal Behavior in Recent History
Abstract The Philippine national government experienced large and unsustainable budget deficits in the 1980s. After a brief period of near balanced budget in the mid-1990s, large budget deficits have reemerged in recent years. But unlike the heavy fiscal imbalances in the early 1980s which were caused by large investment in public infrastructure and low tax effort, the return of large fiscal deficits in recent years was accompanied by falling tax effort and underspending for education, health and public infrastructure. With deficits rising and investment in human capital and public infrastructure deteriorating, an appropriate question is: what has caused the poor fiscal performance of the Philippines in recent years? Is it the result of unfortunate events, macroeconomic shocks or misdirected fiscal policy? |
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15 Oct 2008 | Is Labor Export Good Development Policy?
Abstract Labor migration began to be promoted in the late 60s or early 70s by a number of Asian countries burdened by problems of unemployment, poverty, and scant foreign exchange. However, labor export was generally intended to be a stop-gap measure while governments were trying to implement policy reform to whip their economies into shape. Indeed, labor migration as policy has largely faded in many of our Asian neighbors but remains a major development policy plank in our country. What has made the Philippines specially cut out to be a labor exporter? What are the benefits and costs of migration? Is the export of labor sustainable? Are we content with being a labor exporter? |
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15 Jan 2009 | Reforming the National Tax and Expenditure System
Abstract The purpose of giving this lecture is to start a paper on how on how taxation and government expenditures in the Philippines could be reformed. This short paper is the bare bones of a longer paper that would hopefully be finished in a month or two. With regard to sustainability of the national debt, our view is that a 150 billion peso deficit (or even 200 billion) would not be a threat to the sustainability of the public debt if: |
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15 Apr 2009 | Learning from the Global Economic Crisis
Abstract By almost all accounts this is the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and it may end up being the worst economic crisis since that time as well. As of March 2009, the United Kingdom, Japan, and the United States have suffered absolute declines of -1.9%, -4.3%, and -6.2%, respectively, in their gross domestic product. Other countries, such as Iceland and Spain have suffered similar if not worse fortunes. There are indications that things will get worse before they get better. |
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10 Jul 2009 | Pathways Out of Rural Poverty: Is Agrarian Reform Passe?
Abstract Agrarian reform programs, particularly land redistribution, land tenure, and restrictions on land transactions, have been a popular response to persistent poverty in rural areas. This response draws in part from a flawed understanding of income dynamics and poverty reduction in rural areas. CARP has blunted incentives, stifling productivity and rural income growth. Getting the extended CARP to help pave pathways out of rural poverty poses a key implementation challenge. |
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25 Nov 2009 | Global Crises and Reform of the International Monetary System
Abstract The global economy goes through systemic crises. Problems of insufficient global aggregate demand arising from the asymmetric adjustment of deficit and surplus countries and constraints on the policy space for such adjustment, as well as inadequate provision of global liquidity, are recurring themes in these crises. The resolution of these problems necessitates reform of the international monetary system. An alternative to the US dollar as the main global reserve currency and a system that is reflective of the distribution of economic power in the world needs to be found. |
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24 Feb 2010 | How do Institutions Constrain Philippine Growth?
Abstract The record of growth will show that the quality of institutions represents a significant hindrance to growth and development. In particular, political uncertainty and the failure to control corruption can be empirically shown to discourage investment in the recent period. The deeper issue, however, is why Philippine institutions are what they are, and by what means they can be reformed. Theory, history, and comparisons with other countries of the region may provide some answers to these questions. |
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14 Apr 2010 | Elections 2010: The Morning After (Economic Issues for the Next President)
Abstract With the world economy still in the doldrums, where will the impetus for economic recovery and job generation come from? Is there room for growth beyond what OFW remittances can deliver in the foreseeable future? How can investor confidence be restored? Given its poor performance on the revenue front, what can the government realistically do to jumpstart the economy? In principle, only public expenditures that contribute to economic growth and poverty reduction ought to be chosen. What reforms in which institutions are necessary for achieving such an outcome? How can growth be made inclusive? What are the prospects for reversing the decline in basic education enrollment rates? Is there scope for further expanding public spending for health and other social services without having to reform tax rates? These are just some of the issues to be discussed by a panel of economists, most of whom have grappled with questions such as these not only as academics, but as senior economic managers in four administrations, dealing in real time with difficult policy trade-offs, often against strong vested interests and working through weak, sometimes even compromised institutions. |
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21 Jul 2010 | Job Creation: What’s Labor Policy Got To Do With It?
Abstract Unemployment in the Philippines remains high by Southeast Asian standards notwithstanding the change in definition of unemployment in 2005. Firm level data also support the survey finding of a heightened sense of employment insecurity among workers in recent years. The sluggish growth of employment is often cited as an argument for reducing labor regulations which, it is claimed, increase the cost of doing business and thereby only exacerbate unemployment. However, the empirical evidence to support this policy prescription is scanty for the Philippines and at best mixed for other countries. The key to stable and productive employment is rapid and sustained economic growth supported by investments in physical and human capital. |
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17 Nov 2010 | Is Government Really Solving the Housing Problem?
Abstract Informal housing arrangements, substandard structures, congestion, and land use conflicts characterize the housing problem in the Philippines. Evidence suggests that rather than help, however, the response of the State, especially its reliance on below-market priced mortgage loans, has aggravated the situation. If the housing problem is to be solved, government needs to rethink its role in housing finance, delink housing social assistance from financial markets, and turn its attention to fundamental supply side and urban governance issues. The recent Ondoy, North Triangle, and Xevera debacles illustrate why. |
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22 Feb 2011 | Free Tuition, Socialized Tuition or Full-Cost Tuition in SUCs?
Abstract The lecture suggests policy reforms designed to raise the quality of instruction, encourage and strengthen academic institutions that undertake research and provide advanced instruction in the sciences, engineering and mathematics, as well as to broaden the access to tertiary education in the Philippines. Only a handful of its 1,741 colleges and universities are of high quality and provide advanced instruction in science and technology. The dismal state of its tertiary education has helped hamper economic growth of the Philippines and explains its poor stranding in global competitiveness. The lecturer recommends drastic changes of the subsidy program to higher education. She proposes to replace the current system that is politically driven and not linked to quality, program offering and student ability with one directed at promoting innovation through research and advanced instruction, and offering scholarship to all bright and deserving students, with living allowance for the relatively poor among them. She recommends the replacement of the nominal fee system in state universities and colleges with socialized tuition at full cost in the intermediate run, and with full-cost tuition in the long run. |
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